Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium · 76° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–San José State) | 20–24 | 16–26 | – |
| Spread | San José State −4.2 | San José State −9.7 | San José State −6 |
| Total | 43.6 | 41.7 | 42.5 |
| San José State win chance | 61% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming +6 ★ Over 42.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ San José State −6 ☆ Under 42.5
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for San José State. Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around San José State by 4.212%
Wyoming by 14+
27%
Wyoming by 1–13
34%
San José State by 1–13
26%
San José State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.149 #123 | Offense EPA / play | −0.126 #116 |
| +0.127 #113 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.054 #77 |
| −5.3% #120 | Offense success rate | −7.3% #132 |
| +7.3% #132 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #95 |
| −0.032 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.158 #131 |
| −0.289 #133 | Passing EPA / play | −0.038 #72 |
| +0.108 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.085 #99 |
| +0.146 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #71 |
| −16.6 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.9 #108 |
| +2.9 #86 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.8 #95 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.7% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.8% #128 |
| +3.8% #102 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #45 |
| −1.86 #137 | Points per drive | −1.27 #124 |
| +0.45 #95 | Points per drive allowed | +0.37 #92 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #63 | Line yards per rush | −0.15 #108 |
| +0.40 #125 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #105 |
| −1.7% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.8% #125 |
| −3.4% #122 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #126 |
| +0.2% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #107 |
| −3.0% #116 | Havoc created | −1.6% #91 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.086 #109 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.077 #106 |
| +0.040 #101 | Passing explosiveness | +0.099 #74 |
| −0.56 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.73 #133 |
| −0.112 #26 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.046 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #40 | Run rate | 53% #107 |
| −16.1 #121 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.5 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.0 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.4 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| L0-28 | |
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
San José State: last 5 games
| W20-16 | |
| L10-26 | |
| W30-20 | |
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
