Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 45° · wind 17 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Wyoming) | 21–22 | – |
| Spread | Wyoming −1.0 | No line |
| Total | 42.1 | n/a |
| Wyoming win chance | 53% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wyoming by 1.017%
Northern Illinois by 14+
31%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
32%
Wyoming by 1–13
20%
Wyoming by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.190 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.150 #123 |
| +0.167 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.127 #112 |
| −4.6% #111 | Offense success rate | −5.3% #120 |
| +4.2% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.2% #131 |
| −0.061 #111 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.033 #102 |
| −0.249 #126 | Passing EPA / play | −0.289 #133 |
| +0.126 #118 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #110 |
| +0.149 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.145 #101 |
| −10.0 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −16.6 #138 |
| +7.2 #118 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.9 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.5% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.7% #111 |
| +5.8% #121 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.8% #102 |
| −1.07 #114 | Points per drive | −1.87 #137 |
| +1.06 #119 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.18 #115 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #63 |
| −0.00 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.40 #124 |
| +1.0% #109 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #73 |
| +0.0% #70 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.4% #121 |
| +0.3% #113 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #110 |
| −1.6% #91 | Havoc created | −3.0% #116 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.008 #80 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.086 #109 |
| −0.090 #131 | Passing explosiveness | +0.039 #101 |
| −0.35 #97 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.57 #123 |
| −0.018 #62 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.111 #26 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #81 | Run rate | 58% #40 |
| +0.8 #16 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.1 #120 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 14.2 / 22.0 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Northern Illinois: last 4 games
| L14-35 | |
| L17-42 | |
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| L0-28 | |
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
