Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 52° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–Air Force) | 25–26 | – |
| Spread | Air Force −1.2 | No line |
| Total | 50.2 | n/a |
| Air Force win chance | 53% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Air Force by 1.217%
UNLV by 14+
30%
UNLV by 1–13
32%
Air Force by 1–13
21%
Air Force by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.095 #107 | Offense EPA / play | −0.053 #84 |
| +0.020 #64 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.107 #103 |
| −6.0% #123 | Offense success rate | −1.5% #86 |
| +0.1% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #77 |
| −0.057 #108 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.108 #35 |
| −0.132 #97 | Passing EPA / play | −0.269 #130 |
| +0.091 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.101 #107 |
| −0.041 #36 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.164 #111 |
| −5.4 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.5 #101 |
| +0.2 #68 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.9 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.0% #117 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.3% #132 |
| −0.9% #55 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.5% #52 |
| −0.82 #102 | Points per drive | −0.81 #101 |
| −0.03 #62 | Points per drive allowed | +0.42 #94 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #88 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #45 |
| +0.45 #131 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #107 |
| −1.4% #76 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.6% #10 |
| −2.9% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #96 |
| −0.0% #105 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.9% #6 |
| −0.1% #60 | Havoc created | −3.6% #125 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.051 #54 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.004 #73 |
| +0.131 #59 | Passing explosiveness | +0.271 #23 |
| +0.04 #45 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.84 #136 |
| +0.198 #128 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.099 #104 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #47 | Run rate | 85% #1 |
| −8.8 #76 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.0 #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 20.0 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +9.0 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.0 |
UNLV: last 5 games
| W39-31 | |
| W38-10 | |
| L6-44 | |
| W21-6 | |
| L21-27 |
Air Force: last 4 games
| W14-9 | |
| W36-33 | |
| L32-38 | |
| W34-0 |
