Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 73° · wind 15 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SAC–Bowling Green) | 17–24 | 20–25 | – |
| Spread | Bowling Green −6.9 | Bowling Green −4.2 | Bowling Green −7.5 |
| Total | 40.5 | 45.1 | 44.5 |
| Bowling Green win chance | 67% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SAC +7.5 ★ Under 44.5
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ SAC +7.5 ☆ Over 44.5
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State. Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Bowling Green by 6.99%
Sacramento State by 14+
24%
Sacramento State by 1–13
35%
Bowling Green by 1–13
32%
Bowling Green by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SAC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.243 #135 | Offense EPA / play | −0.263 #137 |
| +0.181 #123 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.092 #84 |
| −7.5% #128 | Offense success rate | −8.6% #132 |
| +4.2% #92 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.1% #110 |
| −0.247 #136 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.331 #138 |
| −0.242 #128 | Passing EPA / play | −0.205 #120 |
| +0.079 #87 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #119 |
| +0.234 #127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #49 |
| −14.7 #136 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −15.5 #137 |
| +13.3 #133 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.1 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.4% #129 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.7% #132 |
| −1.6% #40 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.4% #42 |
| −1.86 #137 | Points per drive | −1.61 #135 |
| +2.05 #134 | Points per drive allowed | +1.73 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.90 #137 | Line yards per rush | −0.75 #134 |
| +0.52 #125 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.55 #130 |
| +11.3% #137 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.8% #129 |
| −5.6% #128 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #97 |
| +3.2% #124 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.7% #130 |
| −5.4% #138 | Havoc created | −1.7% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.087 #104 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.370 #137 |
| −0.236 #134 | Passing explosiveness | −0.083 #105 |
| −0.30 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.93 #137 |
| +0.004 #83 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.087 #48 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% #131 | Run rate | 54% #44 |
| −19.9 #133 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.2 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SAC | Season to date | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.6 / 28.6 | Points for / against | 11.4 / 33.0 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | -21.6 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.7 |
| 49.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.6 |
Sacramento State: last 5 games
| L6-35 | |
| L10-31 | |
| L3-49 | |
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
Bowling Green: last 5 games
| W24-20 | |
| L6-14 | |
| L7-55 | |
| L7-56 | |
| L13-20 |
