Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium · 81° · wind 9 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Alabama–Arkansas State) | 27–33 | 29–28 | – |
| Spread | Arkansas State −5.5 | South Alabama −1.6 | Arkansas State −1.5 |
| Total | 60.0 | 56.9 | 60.5 |
| Arkansas State win chance | 63% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas State −1.5 ★ Under 60.5
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ South Alabama +1.5 ☆ Under 60.5
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for South Alabama. Total: 3.6 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas State by 5.512%
South Alabama by 14+
25%
South Alabama by 1–13
33%
Arkansas State by 1–13
30%
Arkansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.019 #73 | Offense EPA / play | −0.055 #84 |
| +0.235 #136 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.164 #120 |
| −4.9% #104 | Offense success rate | −0.5% #64 |
| +8.7% #130 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.6% #128 |
| −0.061 #89 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.001 #63 |
| +0.097 #37 | Passing EPA / play | −0.097 #92 |
| +0.183 #127 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.045 #66 |
| +0.223 #124 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.298 #133 |
| −0.4 #66 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #95 |
| +11.4 #128 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.0 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.7% #83 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.5% #70 |
| +10.8% #135 | Passing-down success allowed | +8.6% #129 |
| −0.29 #80 | Points per drive | −0.22 #77 |
| +1.60 #122 | Points per drive allowed | +0.89 #91 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #88 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #85 |
| +0.32 #106 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.72 #138 |
| −1.4% #38 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.5% #79 |
| −1.8% #83 | Opponent runs stuffed | −8.1% #138 |
| −0.2% #61 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #102 |
| −0.1% #58 | Havoc created | −3.8% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.058 #41 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.029 #57 |
| +0.209 #13 | Passing explosiveness | −0.086 #109 |
| −0.54 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.56 #124 |
| +0.006 #85 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.112 #117 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #12 | Run rate | 49% #104 |
| −13.8 #106 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.3 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Alabama | Season to date | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 35.4 / 31.6 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.3 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
South Alabama: last 5 games
| W52-35 | |
| L21-45 | |
| W41-36 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W39-14 |
Arkansas State: last 5 games
| L20-23 | |
| W17-14 | |
| L7-31 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
