Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 85° · wind 14 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCF–Oklahoma State) | 23–25 | 20–31 | – |
| Spread | Oklahoma State −1.6 | Oklahoma State −11.0 | Oklahoma State −10.5 |
| Total | 47.8 | 50.2 | 53.5 |
| Oklahoma State win chance | 54% | – | – |
Line moved from Oklahoma State −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCF +10.5 ★ Under 53.5
Spread: 8.9 pts better than Vegas for UCF (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.7 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Oklahoma State −10.5 ☆ Under 53.5
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Oklahoma State. Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma State by 1.616%
UCF by 14+
30%
UCF by 1–13
32%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
22%
Oklahoma State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCF | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.060 #86 | Offense EPA / play | −0.029 #76 |
| −0.096 #17 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.034 #35 |
| −2.8% #87 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #41 |
| −1.5% #32 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #51 |
| −0.019 #71 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.070 #94 |
| −0.124 #99 | Passing EPA / play | +0.073 #41 |
| −0.065 #24 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.001 #46 |
| −0.140 #16 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.220 #7 |
| +1.8 #53 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #59 |
| −4.9 #21 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #48 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #69 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.0% #88 |
| −4.6% #13 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.5% #14 |
| +0.31 #46 | Points per drive | +0.31 #48 |
| −0.33 #19 | Points per drive allowed | +0.14 #42 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #113 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #63 |
| −0.29 #17 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #76 |
| +3.6% #105 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #72 |
| −0.5% #62 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.7% #48 |
| +0.3% #72 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.5% #12 |
| +0.5% #47 | Havoc created | +0.5% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.015 #62 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.154 #124 |
| +0.006 #67 | Passing explosiveness | −0.044 #91 |
| +0.37 #17 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.13 #71 |
| −0.171 #19 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.096 #42 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #72 | Run rate | 51% #77 |
| −3.6 #37 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.0 #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCF | Season to date | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 32.4 / 17.6 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 19.8 |
| +14.8 | Avg margin | +17.5 |
| +6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.8 |
UCF: last 5 games
| L17-27 | |
| W21-13 | |
| W44-30 | |
| L7-12 | |
| W73-6 |
Oklahoma State: last 4 games
| W41-24 | |
| W59-0 | |
| W39-31 | |
| L10-24 |
