Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Rose Bowl · 73° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–UCLA) | 21–32 | – |
| Spread | UCLA −11.3 | UCLA −3 |
| Total | 53.4 | 49.5 |
| UCLA win chance | 76% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCLA −3 ★ Over 49.5
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCLA by 11.36%
Wisconsin by 14+
18%
Wisconsin by 1–13
33%
UCLA by 1–13
43%
UCLA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.026 #53 | Offense EPA / play | +0.092 #26 |
| −0.106 #18 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.072 #26 |
| −2.0% #90 | Offense success rate | +4.7% #20 |
| −4.7% #17 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.6% #34 |
| +0.138 #22 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.282 #1 |
| +0.020 #55 | Passing EPA / play | −0.137 #100 |
| +0.014 #59 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #36 |
| −0.204 #9 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.125 #20 |
| +2.4 #47 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.5 #11 |
| −6.9 #16 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.3 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #67 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.1% #53 |
| −7.9% #2 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.9% #36 |
| +0.31 #48 | Points per drive | +0.68 #26 |
| −0.96 #10 | Points per drive allowed | −0.43 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.21 #51 | Line yards per rush | +0.75 #1 |
| +0.04 #74 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.28 #23 |
| −6.3% #13 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.1% #25 |
| −4.8% #130 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #32 |
| −2.1% #53 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #58 |
| −0.8% #71 | Havoc created | +1.7% #27 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.263 #1 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.115 #30 |
| +0.278 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.016 #106 |
| −0.13 #70 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.90 #4 |
| −0.191 #5 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.176 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #43 | Run rate | 58% #36 |
| −2.0 #31 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.2 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 18.8 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +26.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +18.0 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Wisconsin: last 5 games
| W31-3 | |
| W24-20 | |
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
UCLA: last 4 games
| W54-3 | |
| W52-38 | |
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
