Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NDSU–UNLV) | 21–27 | 23–23 | – |
| Spread | UNLV −6.0 | UNLV −0.3 | NDSU −3 |
| Total | 48.3 | 46.5 | 47.5 |
| UNLV win chance | 65% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UNLV +3 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 9.0 pts better than Vegas for UNLV (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ UNLV +3 ☆ Under 47.5
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for UNLV. Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UNLV by 6.010%
North Dakota State by 14+
25%
North Dakota State by 1–13
34%
UNLV by 1–13
31%
UNLV by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.069 #91 | Offense EPA / play | −0.101 #105 |
| −0.044 #29 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #67 |
| −5.3% #108 | Offense success rate | −7.0% #123 |
| +3.2% #80 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #66 |
| −0.087 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.104 #106 |
| −0.035 #76 | Passing EPA / play | −0.119 #97 |
| −0.102 #19 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #105 |
| +0.005 #56 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.037 #36 |
| −3.5 #83 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #91 |
| +0.8 #60 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #68 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% #91 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.7% #120 |
| −3.2% #24 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.4% #57 |
| −0.14 #71 | Points per drive | −0.81 #99 |
| +0.73 #82 | Points per drive allowed | +0.47 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #110 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #86 |
| +0.25 #89 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.55 #128 |
| +3.1% #100 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.2% #76 |
| −1.9% #84 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.9% #113 |
| +1.0% #90 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #99 |
| −1.0% #75 | Havoc created | −0.4% #63 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.115 #22 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.034 #55 |
| +0.168 #23 | Passing explosiveness | +0.034 #54 |
| −0.46 #113 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #45 |
| +0.001 #80 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.166 #129 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #27 | Run rate | 54% #45 |
| −23.9 #137 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.7 #76 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NDSU | Season to date | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 25.0 / 23.6 |
| +23.8 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.6 |
| 56.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |
North Dakota State: last 5 games
| W28-0 | |
| W31-10 | |
| W38-32 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
UNLV: last 5 games
| W39-31 | |
| W38-10 | |
| L6-44 | |
| W21-6 | |
| L21-27 |
