Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Cotton Bowl · 87° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas–Oklahoma) | 24–12 | 26–16 | – |
| Spread | Texas −12.4 | Texas −9.7 | Texas −7.5 |
| Total | 35.8 | 42.0 | 39.5 |
| Oklahoma win chance | 21% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas −6 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas −7.5 ★ Under 39.5
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Texas −7.5 ☆ Over 39.5
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Texas. Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 12.446%
Texas by 14+
33%
Texas by 1–13
17%
Oklahoma by 1–13
4%
Oklahoma by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.066 #34 | Offense EPA / play | −0.066 #89 |
| −0.199 #3 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.199 #2 |
| +4.0% #22 | Offense success rate | −0.1% #60 |
| −9.1% #3 | Defense success rate allowed | −9.2% #2 |
| +0.006 #59 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.217 #133 |
| +0.136 #27 | Passing EPA / play | +0.130 #29 |
| −0.193 #3 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.145 #12 |
| −0.210 #8 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.197 #11 |
| +8.0 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #74 |
| −15.6 #1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −11.2 #2 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.6% #26 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.6% #35 |
| −6.0% #6 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.8% #8 |
| +1.31 #15 | Points per drive | +0.44 #40 |
| −1.58 #1 | Points per drive allowed | −1.09 #2 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 #80 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #70 |
| −0.53 #7 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.50 #9 |
| +0.9% #73 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.8% #108 |
| +3.9% #16 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #20 |
| +0.4% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #55 |
| +4.7% #7 | Havoc created | +5.8% #2 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.144 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.377 #138 |
| +0.035 #52 | Passing explosiveness | +0.045 #49 |
| −0.21 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #41 |
| −0.175 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.189 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #37 | Run rate | 51% #81 |
| +8.9 #1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.6 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas | Season to date | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 33.2 / 13.2 | Points for / against | 22.0 / 16.0 |
| +20.0 | Avg margin | +6.0 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
Texas: last 4 games
| W20-17 | |
| W30-6 | |
| W24-23 | |
| W59-7 |
Oklahoma: last 4 games
| L13-41 | |
| W14-6 | |
| L10-17 | |
| W51-0 |
