Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 83° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida–Texas) | 20–34 | – |
| Spread | Texas −14.1 | No line |
| Total | 53.6 | n/a |
| Texas win chance | 81% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 14.14%
Florida by 14+
15%
Florida by 1–13
31%
Texas by 1–13
50%
Texas by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.181 #9 | Offense EPA / play | +0.065 #34 |
| −0.024 #40 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.200 #3 |
| +6.7% #11 | Offense success rate | +3.9% #22 |
| +1.1% #61 | Defense success rate allowed | −9.1% #3 |
| +0.122 #14 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.006 #59 |
| +0.222 #10 | Passing EPA / play | +0.135 #27 |
| +0.012 #51 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.194 #4 |
| +0.017 #60 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.211 #8 |
| +13.0 #7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.0 #19 |
| +0.1 #55 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −15.6 #1 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.0% #21 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.6% #26 |
| +1.5% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #6 |
| +2.18 #7 | Points per drive | +1.30 #15 |
| +0.31 #53 | Points per drive allowed | −1.58 #1 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.06 #59 | Line yards per rush | −0.17 #80 |
| +0.14 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.53 #7 |
| −0.3% #58 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #73 |
| −3.8% #110 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.9% #16 |
| −3.8% #9 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #73 |
| +2.1% #26 | Havoc created | +4.7% #7 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.066 #38 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.143 #121 |
| +0.027 #60 | Passing explosiveness | +0.036 #52 |
| +0.41 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #82 |
| −0.092 #45 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.175 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #24 | Run rate | 54% #38 |
| −2.1 #22 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +8.9 #1 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida | Season to date | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 46.2 / 27.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 13.2 |
| +19.0 | Avg margin | +20.0 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 53.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Florida: last 5 games
| L17-45 | |
| W52-28 | |
| W44-39 | |
| W52-3 | |
| W66-21 |
Texas: last 4 games
| W20-17 | |
| W30-6 | |
| W24-23 | |
| W59-7 |
