College football · 2026

Track Record

How the picks held up, in public

2026 so far

pre-game predictions, scored once games are final

Winners picked

324-67

82.9% of 391 games

Beaver’s Picks: sides

195-191-5

50.5% · 52.4% breaks even

Beaver’s Picks: totals

200-191

51.2% · 52.4% breaks even

Average miss, margin

12.6

Vegas 11.8 · lower is better

Average miss, total

12.0

Vegas 11.9

Vegas gaps, against the spread

111-112

226 games with a 3+ pt gap

Are the win chances honest?

dots near the line mean yes

Winners picked by week

Sam’s Picks

Sam’s projected score against the Vegas line, graded the same way as Beaver’s

Sam’s Picks: sides

1-0

100.0% · 52.4% breaks even

Sam’s Picks: totals

0-1

0.0% · 52.4% breaks even

Games with a Sam’s Pick

1 graded so far

How Vegas gaps have done

backtest, model’s side vs. the closing line, pushes excluded

Spread

Gap size	Games	Record	Model side won
0 to 3 pts	3,823	1,967-1,856	51.4%
3 to 5 pts	1,667	864-803	51.8%
5 to 7 pts	1,012	517-495	51.1%
7 to 10 pts	605	311-294	51.4%
10+ pts	292	135-157	46.2%

Total

Gap size	Games	Record	Model side won
0 to 2 pts	2,614	1,338-1,276	51.2%
2 to 4 pts	2,120	1,084-1,036	51.1%
4 to 6 pts	1,358	676-682	49.8%
6 to 9 pts	940	493-447	52.4%
9+ pts	319	167-152	52.3%

52.4% is the break-even rate at standard odds. A gap means the model disagrees with Vegas, not that it is right; small samples swing a lot.

Backtest

7,582 games, 2017 to 2026, each season predicted using only earlier seasons

Model	Avg miss, margin	Avg miss, total	Winners picked	Beaver side	Brier score
EnsembleIn use	12.67	13.06	75.9%	51.3%	0.159
Ridge	12.75	13.09	75.6%	51.6%	0.159
LightGBM	12.80	13.24	75.6%	51.1%	0.160
Elo baseline	13.68	13.82	73.8%	48.9%	0.170
Vegas closing line	12.19	12.67	n/a	n/a	n/a

Average miss is points between the prediction and the real result. Brier score measures win-chance accuracy: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.

Average miss by season

● Ensemble● Ridge● LightGBM● Elo baseline

Beaver Model

0-1

0.0% against the spread

Sam leads by 1 game

1 head-to-head games · Weeks 6–6

Sam

1-0

100.0% against the spread

Tale of the tape

every game both picked, graded the same way

BeaverSam

1-0100.0%

Winners picked

straight up

1-0100.0%

0-10.0%

Sides vs. Vegas

same line for both

1-0100.0%

0-10.0%

Totals vs. Vegas

over / under

0-10.0%

Best bets

3+ pt spread gaps, 4+ pt total gaps

1-0100.0%

18.4

Average miss, margin

points, lower is better

5.4

41.0

Average miss, total

points, lower is better

41.0

Closer to the final margin

games

Agree or split

on the side

Same side

0 of 1 games

When they agree

0-0

n/a together

When they split

0–1

games won: Beaver – Sam

Race against the spread

games over .500 on sides

● Beaver● Sam

Where they split next

36 upcoming games with Beaver and Sam on opposite sides

Game	Vegas	Beaver	Sam
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	JXST −3	KENN +3	JXST −3
New Mexico State at Florida International	FIU −6.5	NMSU +6.5	FIU −6.5
Sam Houston at Liberty	Liberty −13.5	Sam Houston +13.5	Liberty −13.5
Missouri State at Western Kentucky	WKU −2.5	WKU −2.5	MOST +2.5
South Alabama at Arkansas State	ARST −1.5	ARST −1.5	USA +1.5
Florida State at Louisville	Louisville −3.5	Louisville −3.5	FSU +3.5
Wyoming at San José State	SJSU −6	Wyoming +6	SJSU −6
Texas A&M at Missouri	Missouri −3.5	Texas A&M +3.5	Missouri −3.5
Arizona at West Virginia	Arizona −3	Arizona −3	WVU +3
UCF at Oklahoma State	OKST −10.5	UCF +10.5	OKST −10.5
Wake Forest at NC State	Wake Forest −3.5	NC State +3.5	Wake Forest −3.5
Indiana at Nebraska	Indiana −7.5	Nebraska +7.5	Indiana −7.5
Tulane at Army	Army −3	Army −3	Tulane +3
Ball State at Northwestern	Northwestern −36.5	Ball State +36.5	Northwestern −36.5
South Carolina at Florida	Florida −11.5	SC +11.5	Florida −11.5
Old Dominion at App State	App State −9.5	Old Dominion +9.5	App State −9.5
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	Miami (OH) −2.5	Miami (OH) −2.5	MASS +2.5
Duke at Georgia Tech	Duke −6.5	Georgia Tech +6.5	Duke −6.5
Stanford at Notre Dame	Notre Dame −38.5	Notre Dame −38.5	Stanford +38.5
Virginia Tech at California	VT −10	California +10	VT −10
UCLA at Oregon	Oregon −11.5	Oregon −11.5	UCLA +11.5
Eastern Michigan at Akron	EMU −7	Akron +7	EMU −7
Central Michigan at Ohio	Ohio −3	Ohio −3	CMU +3
UConn at Temple	Temple −3.5	UConn +3.5	Temple −3.5
Rice at East Carolina	ECU −10	ECU −10	Rice +10
Maryland at Ohio State	Ohio State −34.5	Maryland +34.5	Ohio State −34.5
San Diego State at Oregon State	Oregon State −14.5	SDSU +14.5	Oregon State −14.5
LSU at Kentucky	LSU −8.5	Kentucky +8.5	LSU −8.5
Nevada at UTEP	Nevada −9.5	UTEP +9.5	Nevada −9.5
Coastal Carolina at Marshall	Marshall −3	CCU +3	Marshall −3
Georgia at Alabama	Alabama −1.5	Georgia +1.5	Alabama −1.5
USC at Penn State	Penn State −1.5	USC +1.5	Penn State −1.5
Air Force at Northern Illinois	Air Force −7.5	NIU +7.5	Air Force −7.5
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech	LT −3	Louisiana +3	LT −3
Hawai'i at Arizona State	ASU −20.5	ASU −20.5	Hawai'i +20.5
Boise State at Fresno State	Boise State −6.5	Boise State −6.5	Fresno State +6.5

Game by game

projected score (away–home) and each side’s picks, graded

Wk	Game	Beaver	Sam	Closer
6	USM at Troy Final 34–55	23–25 Southern Miss +9.5LUnder 51.5L	16–32 Troy −9.5WUnder 51.5L	Sam

Both are graded against the same Vegas line, the one shown on the game cards. Sam’s picks that first appeared after kickoff are left out. Sam’s picks come from Sam’s projected score, the same way Beaver’s do. Best bets are picks at least 3 points off the Vegas spread or 4 off the total. 52.4% breaks even at standard odds.